中国耕地经营规模预测*

doi:10.12398/j.issn.2096-7217.2020.01.007

智能化农业装备学报（中英文） ›› 2020, Vol. 1 ›› Issue (1): 49-55.DOI: 10.12398/j.issn.2096-7217.2020.01.007

中国耕地经营规模预测^*

陈聪, 曹光乔

农业农村部南京农业机械化研究所,南京市,210014

收稿日期:2020-01-07 出版日期:2020-08-15 发布日期:2021-11-30
通讯作者: 曹光乔,男,1978年生,湖北宜昌人,博士,研究员;研究方向为农村经济与农业机械化,E-mail: caoguangqiao@126.com
作者简介:陈聪,男,1986年生,湖南城步人,博士研究生,助理研究员;研究方向为农业机械化。E-mail:chenchong520206@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFD0700601);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(农科院办(2014)216 号);中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(S202021)

Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China^*

Cong Chen, Guangqiao Cao

Nanjing Institute of Agricultural Mechanization, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing, 210014, China

Received:2020-01-07 Online:2020-08-15 Published:2021-11-30
Contact: Guangqiao Cao, Doctor, Researcher; research direction: rural economy and agricultural mechanization. E-mail: caoguangqiao@126.com
About author:Cong Chen, Doctoral Candidate, research assistant; research direction: agricultural mechanization. E-mail: chenchong520206@163.com
Supported by:
National key research and development projects (2017YFD0700601); Science and technology innovation project of Chinese academy of agricultural sciences; Special fund for basic scientific research of Chinese academy of agricultural sciences (S202021)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 农业规模化经营是提高生产效率、资源利用率的有效途径,并能促进农业机械化的发展,降低生产成本,增加农民收入。大部分研究集中在对农业适度规模进行测算,与中国农业多种规模并存的现实不相符,本文拟基于历史统计数据挖掘估计出耕地流转经营规模分布函数,模拟出不同经营规模发展农户数量,分析不同经营模式下的规模分布情况。研究结果表明:(1)到2025年我国耕地经营面积超过6.67 hm²的农户数将达到412万户,经营面积超过20 hm²的农户数达到132万户,经营面积超过33.33 hm²的农户数76万户,经营面积超过66.67 hm²的农户数将达到34万户。(2)家庭农场将成为规模经营主体的主流,家庭经营农场将达到1 292.38万户,经营的耕地面积最多,占到总耕地面积的39%。合作社数量较少,仅占总农户数的0.29%,但由于平均经营规模较大,合作社经营的耕地面积占总耕地面积的27%。规模化经营成为农业经营主要方式,规模化经营的耕地总量达到70%。

关键词: 农业, 耕地, 经营规模, 预测, 耕地流转

Abstract: Large-scale agricultural operation is an effective way to improve production efficiency and resource utilization rate, which can promote the development of agricultural mechanization, reduce production costs and increase farmers' income. Most of the studies have focused on the estimation and calculation of the moderate agricultural scale, which is not consistent with the reality of the coexistence of multiple agricultural scales in China. This paper attempts to estimate the distribution function of cultivated land transfer operation scale based on the historical statistical data, simulate the number of farm households with different scale of operation development and analyze the distribution of the scale under different operation models. The research results show that: (1) By 2025, the number of farm households with cultivated land operation area over 6.67 hm² will reach 3.57 million, the number of farmer households with cultivated land operation area over 20 hm² will reach 1.09 million, the number of farmer households with cultivated land operation area over 33.33 hm² will reach 597 500, and the number of farmer households with cultivated land operation area over 66.66 hm² will reach 223 300 in China. (2) Family farms will become the mainstream of the scale operation entities. Family operation farms will reach 11.46 million, operating the largest area of cultivated land which account for 39% of the total cultivated area. The number of cooperatives is few, accounting for only 0.22% of the total number of farm households. However, due to the relatively large average operation scale, the cultivated land area managed by the cooperatives accounts for 27% of the total cultivated land area. Large-scale operation has become the main way of agricultural operation, with the large-scale operation of total cultivated land reaching 70%.

Key words: agriculture, cultivated land, scale of operation, prediction, cultivated land transfer

陈聪, 曹光乔. 中国耕地经营规模预测^*[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2020, 1(1): 49-55.

Cong Chen, Guangqiao Cao. Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China^*[J]. Journal of Intelligent Agricultural Mechanization, 2020, 1(1): 49-55.

参考文献

[1] 钱贵霞, 李宁辉. 粮食生产经营规模与粮农收入的研究[J]. 农业经济问题, 2006(6): 59-72.
Qian Guixia, Li Ninghui. The food produces the research of conduct the scale and performance [J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2006(6): 59-72.
[2] 梅建明. 再论农地适度规模经营——兼评当前流行的“土地规模经营危害论”[J]. 中国农村经济, 2002(9): 31-35.
[3] 赵旭强, 韩克勇. 试论农业规模化经营及其国际经验和启示[J]. 福建论坛(人文社会科学版), 2006(8): 25-27.
[4] Magnar F, Hilde B, Rob J F, et al. Drivers of change in Norwegian agricultural land control and the emergence of rental farming [J]. Journal of Rural Studies, 2014, 33: 9-19.
[5] 王国华. 日本农业规模经营的实现形式——以日本岩手县的村落营农为例[J]. 世界农业, 2014(7): 143-146.
[6] 邓衡山, 王文烂. 合作社的本质规定与现实监视——中国到底有没有真正的农民合作社? [J]. 中国农村经济, 2014(7): 15-26.
[7] Yuliando H, Erma K N, Cahyo S A, et al. The strengthening factors of tea farmer cooperative: case of Indonesian tea industry [J]. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 2015(3): 143-148.
[8] Wang Zhongqun, Liang Jian, Cao Guangqiao, et al. Developing agricultural mechanization scientifically and moderately on the hilly lands in the south of China [J]. Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2011(2): 3-8.
[9] 黄波. 台湾扩大家庭农场经营规模的途径与成效[J]. 世界农业, 1997(2): 17-18.
[10] 唐莹, 穆怀中. 中国耕地劳动力承载量适度性检验[J]. 中国农村经济, 2016(10): 51-60.
[11] 胡瑞卿, 张岳恒. 不同目标下耕地流转的理论与实证分析[J]. 中国农村经济, 2007(1): 36-44.
[12] MaZenglin, YuZhigang. An empirical analysis of the appropriate scale of land operation of heilongjiang province under different economic objectives [J]. Commercial Research, 2012, (9): 145-150.
[13] 张成玉. 土地经营适度规模的确定研究——以河南省为例[J]. 农业经济问题, 2015(11): 57-63.
[14] 王国敏, 唐虹. 山地丘陵区农地适度规模经营的有效性及其限度——对适度规模经营危害论的一个批判[J]. 社会科学研究, 2014(6): 16-23.
[15] Gobin A, Campling P, Feyen J. Logistic modeling to derive agricultural land use determinants: A case study from south-eastern Nigeria [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2002, (89): 213-228.
[16] Yohannes G H, Randall S R. Modeling migration effects on agricultural lands: A growth equilibrium model [J]. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 2004, 33(1): 50-60.
[17] 陈聪, 曹光乔. 江西省种粮大户经营规模扩张制约因素研究[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2016, 37(11): 185-187, 211.
Chen Cong, Cao Guangqiao. Study on restriction factors of expanding farmers' management area in Jiangxi Province [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2016, 37(11): 185-187, 211.
[18] 崔思远, 肖体琼, 陈永生, 等. 推进土地规模化经营促进蔬菜生产机械化——以江苏省露地辣椒种植为例[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2016, 37(6): 255-258.
Cui Siyuan, Xiao Tiqiong, Chen Yongsheng, et al. Propelling land large-scale management to promote the mechanized vegetable production—Taking pepper planting in Jiangsu Province as an example [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2016, 37(6): 255-258.
[19] 吴萍, 刘小伟, 吴迪, 等. 农机生产性服务模式创新研究——来自山东与江苏的实践[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2019, 40(3): 221-226.
Wu Ping, Liu Xiaowei, Wu Di, et al. Study on agricultural machinery production service mode innovation: Experience from Shandong Province and Jiangsu Province [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2019, 40(3): 221-226.
[20] 黄浩, 石研研. 我国农业生产性服务业与农业经济增长的实证研究——基于VAR模型的计量分析[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2019, 40(10): 217-221, 231.
Huang Hao, Shi Yanyan. Empirical research on the interaction between agriculture and producer service industry: Econometric analysis based on VAR model [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2019, 40(10): 217-221, 231.
[21] 陈旭, 杨印生. 日本农业机械化发展对中国的启示[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2019, 40(4): 202-209.
Chen Xu, Yang Yinsheng. Enlightenment of Japanese agricultural mechanization development to China [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2019, 40(4): 202-209.
[22] 林立, 仵建涛, 陶琎. 关于农业机械化助力乡村振兴战略实施的思考[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2019, 40(2): 228-231.
Lin Li, Wu Jiantao, Tao Jin. Thinking on the implementation of agricultural mechanization promotes the rural revitalization strategy [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2019, 40(2): 228-231.
[23] 凌小燕, 王利民, 乔璐, 等. 我国农机化实用人才总量与构成预测[J]. 中国农机化学报, 2015, 36(4): 282-287.
Ling Xiaoyan, Wang Limin, Qiao Lu, et al. Total quantity and structure prediction of the practical talents of agricultural mechanization in China [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2015, 36(4): 282-287.

中国耕地经营规模预测^*

Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China^*

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 12

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	李搴曦, 孙晓明, 江晗慧, 吴爱茹, 傅隆生, 李瑞. 基于YOLOv4-tiny的设施番茄智能喷药无人车设计与试验[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2023, 4(2): 44-52.
[2]	谢滨, 张志成, 宋中建, 王冉冉, 刘雨萌, 石国萍. 农业废弃物快速好氧发酵设备设计与试验[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2023, 4(1): 62-70.
[3]	白学峰, 常江雪, 滕兆丽, 鲁植雄. 我国智能农业拖拉机关键技术研究进展[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2022, 3(2): 10-21.
[4]	韩余, 宋志禹, 陈巧敏. 4CJ-1200F智能采茶机设计与试验[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2022, 3(1): 1-6.
[5]	裴凤雀, 杨开伟, 王淼, 童一飞 . 智能制造在农业机械领域的应用现状分析[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2022, 3(1): 7-19.
[6]	王鹏军, 陈永生, 孙冬霞, 吴爱兵, 郝延杰, 陈明江. 基于BP神经网络算法的固体有机肥撒施装置控制系统设计^*[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2021, 2(1): 13-19.
[7]	赵静娟, 杨艳萍, 郑怀国, 董瑜. 全球农业机器人研发趋势预测^*[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2021, 2(1): 28-35.
[8]	尤佳, 杜慎忠, 韩长杰, 邱威, 王秀. 基于自走式喷雾机的药液回收系统设计与试验^*[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2020, 1(2): 34-43.
[9]	马继伟, 宋冬冬, 蔺志鹏, 高雄. 基于物联网农业设施群测控系统的研制^*[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2020, 1(2): 44-50.
[10]	孙宜田, 陈刚, 李青龙, 孙永佳, 沈景新, 闫宁. 智慧农业的应用及发展趋势与挑战[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2020, 1(1): 56-59.
[11]	罗锡文. 人工智能与植保机械化[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2020, 1(1): 1-6.
[12]	毛婷婷, 董淑娴, 薛金林. 农业机器人车辆人机协作控制的动态功能分配研究^*[J]. 智能化农业装备学报（中英文）, 2020, 1(1): 24-31.

中国耕地经营规模预测*

Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China*

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 12

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

中国耕地经营规模预测^*

Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China Prediction of cultivated land operation scale in China^*